Biggest Line Moves From Open
The Patriots are still No. The configuration is a little different when compared to the NBA's Western Conference as there is no Warriors-like overwhelming title favorite in the NFC, but the depth at the top overall is quite similar.
The AFC also holds the dubious distinction of being home to four of the five teams at the bottom of the rankings, including each of the bottom three.
Every year since the team playoff format started in , at least four teams have reached the postseason that failed to do so the year before. If that pattern were to hold true in , the most likely teams to ascend to the playoffs are the Packers, Chargers, Texans and 49ers. It's easy to determine what the model sees in those four teams.
The Packers' level of play dropped off when they were forced to put Brett Hundley under center, but with Aaron Rodgers back to normal health, they are a prime candidate to return to the postseason. Los Angeles was frankly good enough to get in last year -- FPI actually considered the Chargers the fourth-best team in the league by the end of the season -- but likely just fell on the wrong side of some random variance.
And quite clearly, the 49ers are a different team after acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo midway through last season. The Jets have the benefit of playing in the same division as two other weak teams: The Browns also are expected to be a worse team than Arizona but have an easier schedule.
All three teams have a fair amount of uncertainty at quarterback, with a first-round rookie currently slated as the backup in the model.
That's because Green Bay is the beneficiary of the eighth-easiest schedule in the league. In addition to rating and ranking teams, the FPI also evaluates all three phases of the game for each team. The big surprise comes at No. It's a good example of the way in which FPI works: Though the model doesn't explicitly consider the substantial acquisitions of non-quarterbacks such as Aqib Talib , Ndamukong Suh , Marcus Peters and Brandin Cooks and the departure of players like Trumaine Johnson , those changes are in some way reflected in the team's Vegas win total.
If the betting market believes a team improved over the offseason, the increase in rating is distributed to each side of the ball based on what it already knows about that team's strengths and weaknesses. Because the FPI remains somewhat skeptical of Jared Goff -- the former Cal quarterback improved after a disastrous rookie campaign but still finished only 16th in Total QBR last year -- it makes the assumption that more of the improvement is coming on the defensive side of the ball.
All last season, the model thought the praise being heaped on the New Orleans defense was a bit overstated, though it is somewhat surprising to see the defense ranked this low. Now, it still believes that the Broncos ' defense is excellent No.
Because Keenum is a quarterback, he is specifically factored into the Broncos' rating, but nonetheless the model sees Denver as having the worst offense in the NFL. In addition, the model is slightly less confident in quarterbacks like Keenum, Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith this year because they switched teams in the offseason.
Basic strength of schedule formulas based on wins and losses from the previous season really don't do the statistic justice. The very idea of strength of schedule is exactly the reason why we ought to know that opponents' records aren't a good measure of their strength -- who knows how good the teams were that the opponents played, and so on, and so on The Packers have the toughest strength of schedule in the traditional calculation.
But their schedule is ranked only 25th in difficulty according to the FPI because they play teams like the Bills nine wins last year and the Cardinals eight , whom we expect to be much worse than their win totals a season ago. After a winless campaign, the FPI has labeled the Browns as the most likely team to earn the No. Despite having Tyrod Taylor -- whom the model likes -- as their likely starter to begin the season, the Browns have a 14 percent chance to earn the top pick in the draft.
For Browns fans looking for some hope, there's this: That's because there's quite a bit of uncertainty about quarterbacks who have never taken a snap in the NFL, but it also means that if Mayfield plays and plays effectively, that projection can change in a hurry.
Of course, there's no guarantee that will happen. In the FPI's opinion, the Jets would be best off with Teddy Bridgewater starting under center, though it doesn't explicitly consider Bridgewater's injury. At one point this offseason, a Tom Brady retirement seemed at least plausible. Had Brady actually hung it up, would the Patriots have been the Super Bowl favorites that they are today?
Would they still win the AFC East? We ran the model in a world where Brady called it quits, and not only were the Patriots no longer the best team in football In the scenario, New England still had a 55 percent chance to win its division -- it helps to have just about the most feeble competition possible -- but only a 3 percent shot to win the Super Bowl down from 18 percent in actuality. And that got us thinking, with FPI able to move quarterbacks around, what other alternative realities could we imagine?
For example, staying in the AFC East They'd be better, that's for sure. But according to the FPI: Don't get us wrong: Even with Cousins wearing green and white, the Jets would still be the 30th-ranked team and would have only a 16 percent chance to reach the playoffs up from 10 percent. What if we know Carson Wentz is healthy to start the season? Or in Week 5? We'll sum it up like this: The difference in the Eagles' chances to win, in the model's mind, between Wentz and Nick Foles is generally about 4 percentage points per game.
After all, we've seen that Foles is a capable fill-in. In Week 1, we give Philadelphia a 65 percent chance to beat Atlanta with Wentz under center and a 61 percent with Foles. On the odds grid itself, you'll see the opening lines at the sportsbook you chose from the Settings menu.
The betting consensus column is an additional feature which shows how many bettors are on either side of the point spread, in the form of a percentage.
You can also see detailed matchup statistics by clicking the link for matchups on the grid. This covers a list of injured players on both teams. It specifies the injury and the player's status. The NFL consensus page is a running account of how the action in percentage of bettors has changed since the openner for the point spread, the moneyline, and the total.
Exclusively available for the NFL page. Full View Classic View. Additional features to assist with NFL handicapping are detailed below. NFL Consensus The NFL consensus page is a running account of how the action in percentage of bettors has changed since the openner for the point spread, the moneyline, and the total.