1. Your Level of Risk Should Be Proportional to Your Bracket Pool
Upsets equate to risk, so you want to increase your risk when it comes to larger bracket pools. Part of considering the competition you are playing in is knowing the scoring rules and your competitors. Are you in a pool with a lot of Duke fans? Picking another favorite to win the title greatly increases your chances of winning your group, as the majority of your opponents are likely to pick Duke.
While the majority of bracket competitions operate by standard rules, some encourage you to pick upsets by rewarding these picks in the scoring systems. Some pools multiply the points by the seed, meaning you get more points for picking upsets. In these pools, you are going to want to pick a number of upsets to have a chance at winning.
When people fill out their bracket, all seeds seem relatively equal, but this is not the case. By now, most fans know to pick a No. How do you determine which No. This is where the Vegas odds can be your friend.
Vegas may not help you fill out your entire bracket, but there will be odds listed for every single opening weekend game. While your competition is just looking at seed numbers , you will be able to dig deeper into matchup thanks to the point spreads for each game.
There have been times in the past where No. You want to pick the upsets where the point spreads for the underdogs are a little more favorable. You can also use the overall Vegas college basketball championship odds to identify the teams you want to have in your Final Four.
While it is great to gather knowledge about teams during the conference tournaments, keep in mind it is not always a great indicator of who will be left standing. Five of the last six champions have not won their conference tournament, including the last four NCAA tournament champs.
While conference tournament play is important for mid-majors, some of the top college basketball teams are able to rebound from slipping up in their conference tournament. Having NBA talent on your roster does not guarantee your team a deep run in March, but you would be wise to consider top teams that do have these top-level players.
Andrew Wiggins did little to help Kansas in the tournament, but here are a few things to consider when it comes to future NBA players. They found teams with NBA level guard play give their teams a better chance to make a deep run. Through , here is what Sporting News found.
In each of the 30 NCAA tournaments prior to last season, all but one national champion had a starting guard who went on to play in an NBA game.
Winning a conference tournament is still a good sign but look at the body of work the team has as well. How has the team done against top opponents? How have they played in their last 10 games? The Selection Committee debates the tournament teams in New York.
This is not earth shattering but your odds to win increase with the more brackets you fill out. Entry fees can add up in private bracket pools, but the majority of major sites allow you fill out multiple entries. These are people that only fill out one bracket. The odds do not care about your principles. Filling out multiple brackets not only increases your odds, it gives you a greater sample size to work with for next year.
Try different strategies for each bracket. At the end of the tournament, look back at all your entries. Which strategies tended to work best and which ones had you at the bottom of the standings? Looking to identify a couple mid-major teams to make a Sweet 16 run? One of the first steps is to eliminate the teams that were not the one seed in their conference tournament.
Many of the conference tournaments for smaller conferences are a bit unique. Sometimes a lower seeded team makes a run in a tournament that happens to be at their home gym.
As this article noted earlier, this does not apply to teams in major conferences. However, to identify a small school candidate, find teams that were the top seed in their conference tournament and ran through it with relative ease. We all love March Madness for the underdog story. While this does happen, as the tournament goes on fans tend to be left with the favorites. While there may be a sleeper team that ends up making a historic run, chances are you will not be able to identify that team.
If you try to nail that Final Four pick and miss out, the domino effect can be extremely detrimental. Smart money is on picking some combination of teams with a top-four seed to make the Final Four. Two seeds happen 20 percent of the time. Three and four seeds share the same percentages of The remaining seeds all have less than a five percent chance of making the Final Four with most having almost zero chance statistically.
If you are looking to pick an upset or two in the first round, look no further than the 12 seeds. According to OddsShark , a 12 seed has upset the five seed in every tournament with the exception of Do your research an identify one or two of the 12 seeds you are going to pick for an upset. Turns out, seeds are when I'm there. Maybe Lipscomb upends North Carolina.
Maybe Houston or Michigan makes a long run to the Final Four, and I'll be there to chronicle the first four games of journey. Or maybe I get to see Gonzaga earn a spot in the Final Four for the second consecutive season. East South Midwest West. That defense is suffocating, and Tony Bennett's crew is due. I don't know how anyone handles Deandre Ayton.
Good luck with that, Cavs. Love what they've done this year at Loyola-Chicago, and love the draw for the Ramblers. Miami is hurting, and Tennessee is really good but not exactly tournament-tested. A couple wins are possible. It's really, really tempting to pick the Tigers to beat Florida State and then upend Xavier to reach the Sweet And, yes, the Tigers looked disjointed in his first game back on the court, but that was to be expected.