And so we have to examine the probabilities and take a stab at the chance of certain events happening. That's where we've got your back with the Basketball Power Index , our predictive model with hopefully all the answers ahead of this year's NCAA tournament. We don't know who our competitors will select until the bracket is locked, but we can take a guess by using the handy Who Picked Whom page on ESPN. And that will be our guide today for some BPI value picks.
We'll skip the obvious Virginia is the favorite, duh and assume you want to zig where others zag if you're here. General rule of thumb: Here are some helpful tips to fill out your bracket:. Not exactly a sleeper, right? I couldn't have imagined Villanova as a value pick a mere week ago, but here we stand with only 14 percent of Tournament Challenge users picking the Wildcats to go all the way, as of this writing.
That's well short of BPI's projection of a 21 percent shot to win. Both teams have over a 40 percent chance to win but aren't being selected in as many brackets. Plus, it's a low-risk move: BPI is down on respective opponents Kentucky and Miami, anyway. The Bulldogs aren't as good as they were a season ago, but the committee conjured an easy path for them. They have a 24 percent chance to get to San Antonio. Bonaventure or UCLA has over a 30 percent chance to beat the Gators; only roughly 15 percent of players think the Bonnies will advance.
If Kentucky had played as well as Purdue this year, the entire country would be falling over itself to pick the Wildcats to win it all. Instead, less than 3 percent of Tournament Challenge users have the Boilermakers winning the title, despite them having a 10 percent shot of accomplishing the feat. That's right, over Kansas. The Jayhawks aren't really good enough to justify their No.
The same move could be made in the West region with Florida State over Xavier, but more people have taken that path. BPI likes Michigan less than most -- it isn't going to overemphasize a late-season run -- so it doesn't think Houston's road to the Elite 8 is that tough. Of course, this involves getting past UNC, too, but we never said this would be easy.
Only 4 percent of people think it could happen, but BPI says there's a 16 percent shot. More likely 20 percent and more picked 10 percent than Houston, but there's still value here. This information can help you get helpful responses.
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