Handicapping in Basketball
Many bettors have made the mistake of thinking that this betting strategy is an easy route to untold riches, but the reality is that it takes a lot of hard work and patience. In this article we'll explore arbitrage betting in more detail.
We'll explain how it works and why it's possible, and also teach you all the calculations you will need to know when using this strategy. We'll also look at its advantages and disadvantages, provide some tips and advice for using this strategy, and answer some frequently asked questions about arbitrage betting. It helps to understand the methods that bookmakers use to set their odds before learning about arbitrage betting. If you're not familiar with these, or just want to refresh your memory, please read our article on how bookmakers make money.
As we've already explained, arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all the possible outcomes of an event in order to guarantee a profit. In a tennis match, for example, you would place two bets — one on each player to win. In a soccer match you would place three bets — one on each team to win plus one on the draw.
You're probably already aware that placing such bets with a single bookmaker would actually guarantee a loss, not a profit. This is because of the way that bookmakers set the odds to give themselves a built in profit margin. For a simple example, let's imagine there was an upcoming tennis match where a bookmaker thought both players had an equal chance of winning.
They might set the odds as follows. Arbitrage betting is therefore not as simple as just betting on all the possible outcomes of an event. If it was that easy, everyone would be doing it and there wouldn't be any bookmakers in business. What you have to do is find opportunities where the odds with different bookmakers make guaranteed profits a possibility.
Such opportunities are often referred to as arbs. Using the same hypothetical tennis match as above, it's possible that another bookmaker would take a different view on the likely outcome. They might make Murray the favorite to win, and set their odds as follows. This has created an arbitrage opportunity.
We'll show you some calculations you can use to highlight when an arb exists later, but please just take our word for it at this stage. It's important to note at this stage that you have to work out the optimal stakes when arbitrage betting.
We'll shortly show you the necessary calculations for this too, but we'll keep it relatively simple for now and use some round figures. As you can see, you would make a profit here regardless of which player wins.
Although this is only a hypothetical example, it should help you to understand just how arbitrage betting works. We've already mentioned that similar opportunities do occur for real, and we'll now explain why. Arbitrage betting is only possible when the right circumstances present themselves. The odds available on sporting events regularly vary from one bookmaker to another, but there needs to be a sufficient difference for an arb to exist.
Such a difference will typically occur for one of the following two reasons. The first reason is the one we referred to in our example above. Bookmakers tend to set their initial odds based on their views of what they think will happen in an event, so it is perfectly possible that two bookmakers will set different odds if they have different opinions about how an event is likely to turn out.
If their opinions are different enough that there is a significant disparity in the odds that they offer, then an arbitrage opportunity may well exist. Although a bookmaker's initial odds may reflect their views about an event, they will subsequently adjust those odds based on the wagers that they take.
If they take a lot of wagers on one particular outcome, they will almost certainly reduce the odds on that outcome. At the same time they will increase the odds on the other outcome or outcomes. This helps them to reduce their exposure to risk, and it can also lead to a notable difference between the odds available at different bookmakers. There are some other reasons why arbs occur, but the two mentioned here are easily the most common.
One of the biggest challenges you will face when using an arbitrage betting strategy is actually finding the right opportunities. Although they do occur reasonably frequently, they don't usually last very long. There are lots of bettors looking for them so they generally get spotted very quickly. As soon as a few bets have been placed to take advantage of an arb, the chances are that the odds will have changed enough for the opportunity to no longer exist.
There are several websites that advertise arbitrage opportunities as and when they appear, and some forums where users can post them up when they identify them. Using such websites and forums can be a relatively easy way to find arbs, but there are some downsides. Firstly, you won't generally find the most lucrative arbs this way. People tend to keep those to themselves.
You also have to be quick to take advantage of the ones that you do find. If there are lots of other people using the same sites and forums, and there usually are, then the opportunities are likely to disappear quite quickly. There is tracking software you can purchase that will find arbs for you, and alert services you can subscribe to that will automatically notify you of them. These are relatively easy options, and very simple to use.
You don't have to do much work yourself other than place the actual bets. They will cost you money though, and you may suffer from the same problem of the opportunities not lasting long. Doing your own research is probably the best option for finding arbs.
It requires the most work, but the rewards can be much greater. By finding your own opportunities you can hopefully take full advantage of them before anyone else is aware of them.
You may also be able to find the more valuable arbs which don't generally get advertised, although this depends on how much time you can dedicate to your research and how quickly you can react to any opportunities you find.
The main downside to doing your own research is that you'll have to do all the necessary calculations yourself too. These calculations are not too complicated, but you do need to fully understand them and be able to apply them quickly. There are two calculations you need to do when arbitrage betting.
The first calculation is simply for determining whether an opportunity exists, while the second calculation is for determining the size of the bets you should place. There is also a third calculation you can use to work out what your overall profit should be. Please note that this calculation is based on using decimal odds.
If you are working with odds in a different format you can use our conversion tool to convert them into decimal format. To determine whether an arb exists or not you must first find the best odds available on each of the possible outcomes of an event. You must then apply the following calculation to each set of odds, with the result expressed as a percentage figure.
This result for each set of odds is known as the individual arbitrage percentage , or IAP. Using the odds for the hypothetical tennis match we mentioned earlier, the calculations would therefore be as follows. You must then add those two IAPs together. Continuing with the same example, the calculation would be as follows. In this case we can see that an opportunity does exist, as the result is This is referred to as the total arbitrage percentage , or TAP.
The lower the percentage, the greater the potential profit. As we demonstrated in our earlier example, you have to get the bet sizes right to make a profit when arbitrage betting. In order to do this you have to use the following calculation, where investment is the total sum that you are looking to stake on the arb. Placing the two bets using these stakes should guarantee the same profit , regardless of the outcome.
Let's see if that's the case. There's a very minor difference of a single cent, but this is just due to issues with rounding numbers to two decimal places during the calculations.
If you want to calculate your expected profit before placing your wagers, you can use the following calculation. The arbitrage betting strategy clearly relies quite heavily on math, but you don't need to be a genius with numbers to make it work. The calculations required are not particularly complex and can easily be done on a calculator.
It's just a case of learning them and knowing when and how to use them. There are two main advantages of the arbitrage betting strategy. The first is simply the very fact that it is possible to create situations where you are guaranteed to make a profit on a sporting event regardless of the outcome.
It could be argued that this is not even gambling, as there is no risk involved once you have created such a situation.
The second advantage is that it's not really a difficult strategy to implement. Once you understand the basic principle of how it works, and the calculations involved, it is relatively easy to take advantage of any arbs that you manage to find. His story is very interesting. You can read some of it here. The rest is in the introduction to the book.
Finally we will link you to lucrative benefits only offered to members. We teach you how to turn bonus bets into cash. Most advanced Arbers do not know how to do this properly. This is a crucial lesson after which you are well on your way. As you gain confidence you should be able to go to your computer at your leisure and make money. The icing on the cake. You are a pro. Sports Arbitrage is a global opportunity. Particularly popular in the UK and Australia. How do I become an Arber?