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If, like me, you share these lingering doubts about both horses, what to do in these futures? I would take the view that if you have any inkling that another horse might possibly be good enough to win, consider playing them before their odds potentially drop further in the coming weeks after possible prep wins. Four come to mind. Collected , who has come into his own this year and led wire-to-wire in the track-and-distance Pacific Classic G1 over Arrogate, is one such contender.
However, his listed odds of at Wynn seem a touch low, perhaps less than what might be offered on raceday. On the other hand, it might be about right if he wins the Awesome Again G1 impressively. Travers G1 winner West Coast might wind up being the most capable three-year-old candidate in the Classic field, but only third or fourth best from the Baffert barn.
If successful in the Pennsylvania Derby G1 next week, his odds will drop more. Email Address Enter valid email address. Zip Code Please enter zip code or country for newsletter signup. Password Must be at least 6 characters and contain a number and an uppercase and lowercase letter.
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Feb 9, Threads: March 28th, at Horse race handicapping can be as simple or as complicated as you would like to make it, and, with good "angles," one can be consistently successful anywhere on the "simple-to-complicated" scale.
Because of it's complexity, there are no "true odds" in horse racing. In addition to the myriad statistics to consider, there are a lot of unknown variables that do not appear in the "charts. Younger horses are sometimes intimidated by more experienced horses. Horses can be sick or hurting during a race, and most people will not be aware of such suffering.
Those adept at "physical" handicapping judging the horses on sight, just before the race have a significant edge over those who bet in ignorance of the horses' conditions.
For various and sundry reasons, not all trainers, owners and jockeys want their horse to win a particular race. There frequently is no way to know the intention of these "connections," and consequently, the statistics of many second-tier and third-tier trainers and jockeys are unreliable. Then, of course, there are the rest of the racing statistics to consider.
There can be numerous statistical considerations. Typically, a past performance data chart PP used in handicapping software includes over data fields per horse in every race. Here is a sample of a standard Bris PP data file for one day at one track the file is a "zipped," with comma delimited values inside. Equibase is the source of most racing statistics.
By the way, the horse with the fastest speed on record often does not win the race. The trick is to combine a good win rate with bets that pay more than the favorite, which brings up another complication of handicapping: When one bets in parimutuel horse racing pools, one is not betting against a "house;" one is betting against the other bettors. Sure, the track and the government and other "interests" get a significant and consistent portion of the pool the "take" , but the payoff on your bet is largely influenced by which horse everyone else bets.
Next time you are at the track or race book, notice how the odds fluctuate -- the payoffs change with the variances in betting. The fairness of such a large take is a matter for another discussion.